Though aimed squarely at China, the new import levies have unsettled trade routes, investment flows, and economic planning across the Middle East and North Africa, a region that has long thrived as a global conduit for goods, capital, and energy. From the ports of Dubai to the factories of Casablanca, the fallout is no longer theoretical—it’s measurable, immediate, and growing.

Now subject to a blanket 10 percent import tariff from the U.S., with even higher rates for countries running persistent trade deficits, MENA economies find themselves caught in the crossfire of a policy they neither provoked nor influenced. The United Arab Emirates, whose economy leans heavily on re-exporting Chinese electronics, machinery, and electric vehicle components to markets in Europe and Africa, has already seen re-export volumes decline by 6.7 percent year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025. For logistics hubs like Jebel Ali and firms like DP World, this is not just a statistical dip—it’s a harbinger of shifting supply chains and eroded margins.

The effects are not limited to trade. Energy markets, a region's lifeblood, are also feeling the strain. As the U.S. tariffs slow global growth and push inflation higher in developed economies, central banks have tightened monetary policy in response. Demand forecasts for oil have cooled, sending Brent crude below $65 a barrel—well below the fiscal breakeven points for countries like Saudi Arabia, which needs prices north of $80 to finance its Vision 2030 megaprojects. With revenues under pressure, the kingdom’s once-unshakable economic plans are being quietly revised.

Elsewhere, North African nations are confronting their challenges. Egypt’s GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year has been cut to 3.8 percent amid a confluence of domestic inflation, weakening remittances, and a slowdown in global trade. Revenue from the Suez Canal—already diminished by geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions in the Red Sea—has continued to slide. In Morocco, a bright spot in regional industrialization, factories producing cars for export are facing higher input costs and tighter margins due to tariffs on Chinese auto parts, particularly in the fast-growing electric vehicle segment.

Yet in a region accustomed to weathering external shocks, adaptation is already underway. The UAE has accelerated its pursuit of bilateral trade deals, recently finalizing Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements with India and Indonesia. These agreements aim to sidestep tariff bottlenecks by deepening ties with high-growth economies across Asia. Gulf states are also investing more heavily in domestic manufacturing and oilfield services, hedging against further global supply chain volatility and preparing for a world where trade routes and partners may shift with political winds.

Still, for many policymakers in the region, the concern is not just the economic damage, but the precedent. A global trading system once anchored in rules-based multilateralism is now increasingly subject to unilateral policy shifts by major powers. For MENA economies—small enough to be excluded from the negotiating table, but large enough to bear the consequences—this reality calls for not only diversification, but strategic independence.

There may be no easy remedy to the disruptions set in motion by Washington’s latest tariff regime. But in boardrooms and ministries across the region, a quiet shift is underway: away from passive integration in global trade, and toward a more active, if uncertain, role in shaping its own future.